STAT 212: Probability II
Spring 2025

This is the second course in the graduate probability sequence, and the sequel to STAT 210. The course will cover discrete-time martingale theory, Brownian motion, and Ito calculus.

Staff and Organization

Instructor: Mark Sellke (msellke@fas.harvard.edu)

Teaching Fellow: Somak Laha (somaklaha@fas.harvard.edu)

Lecture Location: Science Center 705 Sever Hall 103

Important Websites: Canvas

Prerequisites

Probability at the level of STAT 210, and real analysis at the level of MATH 112.

Sections and Office hours

Mark's Office Hours: Wednesday at 10:30am-11:30am and 2pm-3pm (Science Center 711)

Somak's Sections: 4:30pm-5:30pm Tuesday/Thursday
Somak's Office Hours: 5:30pm-6:30pm Tuesday/Thursday
Location: Science Center 304 on Tuesday, and Science Center 705 on Thursday

Course Materials

Some useful books for this course are by Durrett (especially Chapters 4 and 7), Mörters and Peres, Steele, and Revuz and Yor.

Grading

Homework assignments (30%), Midterm (25%), Final (40%), Scribing (5%).

Scribing

Students will signup to scribe during the first week of class. Scribe notes (both PDF and source files) should be emailed to Mark and Somak within 24 hours of the class. This Latex template is recommended but not required (it can be copy-pasted into a new project). If you are not the only scribe for the day, please consolidate your notes into a single version before sending it to us. Scribes are especially encouraged to ask clarifying questions during lectures.

Assignment Schedule

Assignment Deadline
Homework 1 11:59pm ET 2/7/2025
Homework 2 11:59pm ET 2/21/2025
Homework 3 11:59pm ET 3/7/2025
Midterm In class, 3/10/2025 (Monday)
Homework 4 11:59pm ET 4/4/2025
Homework 5 11:59pm ET 4/18/2025
Homework 6 11:59pm ET 4/30/2025
Final Exam TBA

Submitting Problem Sets

Problem sets should be submitted through Gradescope, as a PDF file. The PDF may be typed (e.g. in Latex), or neatly hand-written and scanned (please check for legibility in this case). Make sure to select which pages correspond to which problems, to ensure all of your solutions are graded. See this helpful short video for clarification.

Course Schedule (Tentative)

Date Topic Scribe Notes
Jan 27 Course Overview, Radon-Nikodym Theorem. Notes
Jan 29 Conditional Expectation and Martingales Notes
Feb 3 Uniform Integrability Notes
Feb 5 More on UI, Lp Maximal Inequalities
Feb 10 Backwards Martingales
Feb 12 Concentration of Martingales
Feb 17 (Holiday; no class) --
Feb 19 Construction of Brownian Motion
Feb 24 Roughness of Brownian Motion
Feb 26 Convergence to Brownian Motion in Path Space
Mar 3 Brownian Motion as a Continuous Martingale
Mar 5 Strong Markov Property and Reflection Principle
Mar 10 Midterm --
Mar 12 Donsker's Theorem
Mar 17-21 Spring Break --
Mar 24 Finite-Variation and Paley-Wiener Integration
Mar 26 Progressively Measurable Processes, Ito Isometry
Mar 31 Stochastic Integrals as Local Martingales
Apr 2 Quadratic Variation, Lévy's Characterization of Brownian Motion
Apr 7 Stochastic Differential Equations
Apr 9 Weak and Strong Solutions
Apr 14 Ito's Formula
Apr 16 Girsanov's Theorem
Apr 21 Stratonovich Integration and Spherical Brownian Motion
Apr 23 Stochastic Optimal Control
Apr 28 Diffusion Sampling
Apr 30 Brownian Motion and Complex Analysis
TBA Final Exam --